National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation today announced its forecast for residential heating bills for the 2025–26 winter season, projecting a 16% increase compared to last year. The rise is driven by a return to seasonally normal temperatures, modest delivery and supply rate adjustments, and a predicted weak La Niña, which typically brings colder, snowier conditions to Western New York.

For the five-month heating season from November 2025 through March 2026, the average residential customer is expected to pay approximately $677, or $135 per month, up from $585 last winter. Last season was nearly 6% warmer than normal, which had a mild start with a cold mid-winter stretch and lingering chill into spring.

“A more traditional western New York winter, which would bring colder temperatures compared to last year, will naturally drive higher usage,” said Karen L. Merkel, spokesperson for National Fuel. “Combined with rate adjustments, we anticipate an increase in bills. Our storage will be nearly full at 98% by the end of October so National Fuel customers can rest assured that there will be plenty of natural gas to meet winter needs.”

While market prices for gas supplies are expected to rise this winter, National Fuel has already secured approximately 40% of its supply at lower summer rates with gas storage expected to be nearly full by the end of October. Forecasted New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas pricing for the upcoming winter, when the remaining gas supplies will be purchased, are currently running in the range of $3.269 to $4.236 per MMBtu when compared to this summer at costs ranging from $2.835 to $3.950 per MMBtu. National Fuel does not profit from the sale of natural gas as supply costs are passed directly to customers.

What’s Driving the Increase?

Customer bills include:

• Delivery Costs: Transportation of gas to homes. Rate increases approved by the NY Public Service Commission in December 2024 contribute about $8/month. On Jan. 1, 2025, National Fuel implemented its first base delivery rate increase since 2017, followed by a second increase on Oct. 1, 2025. These adjustments are part of a three-year plan approved by the New York Public Service Commission in December 2024.
• Gas Supply Costs: Market-based purchase costs from suppliers add another $8/month.
• Weather-Driven Usage: Predicted colder temperatures drive higher customer usage and account for an additional $2/month.

Despite the increase, National Fuel’s delivery rates remain among the lowest in New York State. Winter heating bills are still about 10% lower than in 2009-2010.

Bill Breakdown: What’s Driving the Increase

Last winter, National Fuel had projected bills of $560 based on normal weather, but actual costs rose to $585 due to higher than anticipated commodity prices, which offset the impact of warmer-than-average temperatures.

“The Utility realizes that any increase can have an impact on customers,” Merkel said. “Numerous payment assistance programs, totaling approximately $1,500 per eligible household are available for Western New Yorkers to receive much-needed funds to pay this utility bill.”

Customers needing assistance managing their energy bill should call National Fuel at 1.800.365.3234, Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m., or visit the Company’s website at www.nationalfuel.com to get more information on the following programs:

• Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) – Opening Nov. 3 provided final budget approval, this federally-funded program provides significant help with energy bills with grants ranging from $400 – $496 for basic and an additional $400 each for one emergency grant as of Jan. 2, 2026. Based on the last four weeks of household income, a family of four earning $6,680/month or less may qualify. Income eligibility can be easily found at www.heaphelps.com ,
• NYS Energy Affordability Program (Statewide Low-Income Program) – Provides monthly bill discounts on gas delivery charges and is based on the amount of current HEAP grant received ($30.36 per month is the maximum benefit). These discounts are subject to change. Updates to discount amounts will go into effect as of Dec. 1, 2025.
• Neighbor for Neighbor Heat Fund – $300 grants help customers meet basic energy needs with any of the following situations: disabled, have a certified medical emergency, at least 55 years old, recently unemployed or a veteran.
• Special Protections – Safeguards exist for customers who live in households where all residents are 62 years or older, 18 years or younger, blind or permanently disabled.
• Deferred Payment Plans – Special arrangements can be made for a repayment plan based on individual financial circumstances.
• Conservation Incentive Program (CIP)– Provides rebates for installing high-efficiency appliances in your home. Rebates have been significantly increased and available through Dec. 31, 2025 only.
• Sealed– In partnership with National Fuel, covers the upfront costs for upgrades that improve home energy efficiency through weatherization, climate control and more.
• HomeServe – A leading provider of home repair solutions that combines a new HVAC system, installation and ongoing cost efficiency, plus service and maintenance—in one convenient program. The goal is to provide homeowners with the tools to help them protect against the expense, worry and inconvenience of heating and cooling system emergencies.

National Fuel encourages customers to enroll in its Budget Plan to help stabilize monthly heating bills. The plan estimates usage over 12 months, allowing customers to pay a consistent amount each month and avoid seasonal billing swings. Customers receive alerts if the set amount changes.

Convenient payment options include:

• AutoPay: Automatically pay bills on the due date using a credit card or bank account.
• Pay by Text: Make one-time payments via text after storing your payment method on the website.

In addition to available bill assistance programs, customers are urged to take proactive steps to reduce energy use this winter. Simple tips to lower heating costs include:

• Enroll in Budget Billing: Smooth out seasonal spikes by paying a consistent monthly amount based on your annual usage.
• Apply for Assistance Programs: Income-eligible customers may qualify for HEAP, Emergency HEAP, or National Fuel’s Neighbor for Neighbor Program.
• Schedule a Home Energy Audit: Identify areas where you can improve insulation, seal leaks, and upgrade heating systems.
• Manage thermostat settings: Adjusting your thermostat by 7 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit for eight hours a day can lower your bill by up to 10%. A programmable thermostat is recommended as they automatically lower temperatures when you’re asleep or away from home.
• Turn down your water heater: Energy used to heat water can also drive costs up. While many heaters allow higher temperatures, 120 degrees offers enough heat while cutting down on natural gas use.
• Seal Drafts/Cracks: Use weather stripping and caulk to prevent heat loss around windows, doors and baseboards.
• Maintain Your Furnace: Annual inspections and filter replacements improve efficiency and safety.
• Layer Up: Dress warmly indoors and use blankets to stay comfortable without cranking up the heat.

For more energy-saving tips and program eligibility details, visit www.nationalfuel.com or call 1-800-365-3234.

National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation is the Utility segment of National Fuel Gas Company, a diversified energy company that is engaged in a number of natural gas-related activities. The Utility provides natural gas service to more than  2.1 million residents in Western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. For more information, visit nationalfuel.com.

AVERAGE NATIONAL FUEL CUSTOMER WINTER HEATING BILLS OVER THE YEARS